Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla…
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Q26 | $0.35 | $0.41 | +17.2% |
| 4Q25 | $0.45 | $0.50 | +11.0% |
| 3Q25 | $0.56 | $0.50 | -10.5% |
| 2Q25 | $0.40 | $0.40 | -1.1% |
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Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems. The move appears to be driven by Bank of America revising its Tesla forecast ahead of earnings, alongside broader discussion of the company's profit margin trajectory and valuation positioning within the Magnificent Seven cohort.
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Tesla posted net income of $3.79 billion on revenue of $97.88 billion over the trailing twelve months, yielding a 3.9% net profit margin and 4.2% operating margin.
Revenue declined 2.9% year-over-year on a trailing twelve-month basis, reflecting softer demand and pricing headwinds in key markets. Gross margin stands at 19.1%, compressed from prior periods as price reductions have outpaced cost reductions. Operating margin of 4.2% reflects operating leverage constraints amid revenue contraction. The company reported earnings per share of $1.11 on a trailing basis, with the most recent reported quarter (1Q26) delivering $0.41 EPS, beating consensus by 17.2%. EBITDA dynamics are obscured by the elevated multiples, suggesting profitability is pressured relative to historical levels.
Tesla trades at extreme valuation multiples disconnected from current profitability, supported primarily by growth and brand expectations rather than near-term earnings power.
Operating cash flow reached $16.53 billion trailing twelve months, but free cash flow of $5.25 billion reflects elevated capital expenditure required to support manufacturing expansion.
Operating cash flow of $16.53 billion demonstrates the company's ability to convert earnings into cash despite profitability pressures. Free cash flow of $5.25 billion, equivalent to a 5.4% FCF margin on TTM revenue, indicates capital intensity remains high as the company funds gigafactory buildouts and production line upgrades. The gap between operating and free cash flow suggests capex is approximately $11.3 billion annually, critical for supporting future volume growth and technology development. Cash generation provides flexibility for debt service and strategic investments, though sustainability depends on revenue stabilization and margin recovery.
Tesla maintains a strong balance sheet with $44.74 billion in total cash and $15.89 billion in total debt, yielding net cash of approximately $28.85 billion.
The net cash position of roughly $28.85 billion provides substantial financial flexibility and eliminates near-term solvency risk. Total debt of $15.89 billion against total cash of $44.74 billion yields a net cash-to-market-cap ratio of approximately 1.9%, indicating minimal leverage risk. Return on equity of 4.9% and return on assets of 2.2% reflect underutilized capital in relation to the expanded asset base, suggesting equity capital is earning below cost of capital. Debt-to-equity metrics are conservative, and the company faces no imminent refinancing pressure. The balance sheet strength offsets profitability and operational efficiency concerns in the near term.
Analyst sentiment remains constructively biased despite revenue headwinds, but consensus price targets show wide dispersion, signaling genuine conviction disparity on Tesla's growth trajectory.
The consensus buy rating from 47 analysts is supported by a mean price target of USD 425.61, implying modest upside from current levels, though the wide range—from USD 125.00 to USD 600.00—reflects fundamental disagreement on Tesla's valuation. The most recent earnings surprise was positive (1Q26 actual EPS of 0.41 vs. estimate of 0.35, a 17.2% beat), suggesting operational execution is ahead of consensus expectations, yet this has not arrested the trailing revenue decline of 2.9% YoY. As of the most recent disclosures, buyback activity and insider behavior have not been explicitly highlighted as tailwinds, and dividend yield is unknown. Macro headwinds including auto demand uncertainty and potential tariff impacts remain structural risks that could pressure near-term guidance.
Based on $380.84 (at close) · Jul 17, 2026 · Daily chart · News: 8 headlines, Jul 19 – Jul 19
The 3-month structure shows lower_highs_lower_lows, and price remains 4.3% below SMA20 and 7.1% below SMA50 (rising). The 1-month return of -5.9% and 3-month return of -2.1% confirm the recent downward pressure despite SMA50 showing a rising slope.
The 2-year structure exhibits lower_highs_lower_lows, and price sits 8.7% below SMA200 (flat slope). The 12-month return of +18.4% masks a more recent deterioration visible in the 6-month return of -13.3%, indicating a peak and subsequent decline within the longer trend.
Short-term downtrend is consistent with the long-term lower_highs_lower_lows structure; the 12-month gain conceals a significant pullback over the past six months.
| MA | Value | Price | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | $397.85 | below | -4.3% |
| SMA 50 | $409.80 | below | -7.1% |
| SMA 200 | $417.05 | below | -8.7% |
Death cross occurred on 2026-04-09 (SMA20 crossed below SMA50), signaling a shift from short-term uptrend to downtrend.
3 touches with most recent on 2026-06-26; strong historical confluence
3 touches, last on 2025-08-27; secondary support level
3 touches with last on 2025-09-02; represents deeper support zone
2 touches, most recent 2026-07-01; recent resistance near multi-month highs
4 touches, last 2026-03-11; the most-touched resistance level in the verified set
3 touches, last 2026-04-17; intermediate resistance
A descending channel is confirmed over the past ~2–3 months, visible in the closes_pattern and closes_recent data. From the highs near 461.51 (early 2026-05) down to 380.84, price traces lower highs (425.30, 420.60, 411.84 vs 445.00, 445.27) and lower lows (367.96, 361.83, 355.28 vs recent 391.06), defining a clear downward-sloping parallel structure.
A potential bear flag is visible after the sharp drop from 425.30 (2026-07-01) to 380.84 (2026-07-17). The recent closes (391.06 to 406.55 on 2026-07-08/09) show a slight consolidation within a narrow range, consistent with a post-decline pause before potential further downside.
A potential descending triangle is forming with a roughly flat support near 380–391 (the last 6 closes: 394.76, 396.18, 394.46, 391.06, 380.84 in the recent days) and falling highs evident from 425.30 down to 406.55 over the past ~10 trading days. This setup suggests a bias toward downside breakdown.
A potential head-and-shoulders pattern may be forming over the 2Y window, with shoulders near 445.27 (early Jun 2026) and 461.51 (mid-May 2026) and a head near the peak at 461.51. However, the pattern is not yet clearly defined with a completed right shoulder, so confidence remains low.
A very loose inverse cup-and-handle analog may be sketched from the rounded tops near 461.51 (peak) and the recent consolidation near 380–410 (a potential shallow handle), but the resolution is unclear and confidence remains low pending further breakdown confirmation.
A loose rounding-top structure may be sketched from the highs near 461.51 (early-to-mid May 2026) descending through 445–425 to current 380.84 over ~10 weeks, consistent with gradual rollover; however, the recent sharp drop suggests more aggressive selling than typical of a rounding pattern.
Bull case targets the confirmed 52-week high of USD 498.83 as a soft cap for extended upside. Near-term resistance at USD 434.60 (2 touches, last 2026-07-01) must be cleared first. Pattern-wise, a recovery above the descending channel and SMA200 (417.05) would signal a reversal; measured upside from the current lows near 355 to the channel's upper trendline near 445–460 supports a push toward the mean analyst target of USD 425.22 and beyond. Momentum would need to confirm above SMA50 (409.80) and SMA20 (397.85) to establish conviction.
Base case anticipates consolidation or a minor bounce within the established descending channel, with support near the 355–361 lows (2026-06/07) and resistance near 425–435 (recent highs and verified resistance at 434.60). This range reflects the current lower_highs_lower_lows structure persisting for another 6–12 months without a breakout. The recent low of 355.28 provides a defined floor; the 2026-07-01 high of 425.30 acts as an intermediate ceiling.
Bear case targets a breakdown below the current support confluence near 367.88 and 357.19 (both with 3+ touches). If the descending channel breaks further, the next support level is USD 325.76 (3 touches, last 2025-09-02). Catastrophic downside (to the 52-week soft cap floor near USD 149, half of the 52-week low of 297.82) would require a failed earnings report combined with guidance cuts or broader market shock. Within the 6–12-month horizon, bear case targets 272.58 (verified support, 3 touches) as a realistic floor if the lower_highs_lower_lows cascade continues unabated.
Method: Targets derive from the confirmed descending channel (measuring from the 461.51 high to the 355.28 low, with continuation to 272.58 as the next support). Resistance levels (434.60, 418.54, 411.54) and support levels (367.88, 357.19, 325.76, 272.58) are drawn from verified_levels. The 52-week high (498.83) and low (297.82) serve as soft caps for extreme moves; bull case capped at 1.5× the high (allows ~23% upside to that level), bear case floored at ~0.5× the low. Confidence is medium because technicals (descending channel, death cross, price below all SMAs) conflict with analyst bullish consensus; the outcome depends critically on Jul 22 earnings.
Base midpoint implies +2.5% from the current live price.
Latest volume of 31.3M is 25% below the 20-day average of 41.9M, suggesting weak participation during the recent decline.
Analyst consensus is bullish (47 analysts with 5 strong-buy, 17 buy vs 4 sell, 2 strong-sell), and the mean price target of USD 425.22 is 10.4% above the current price, implying an upside narrative. However, the headline slate on Jul 19 reveals a cautionary undercurrent: three pieces highlight earnings risks, profit-margin questions, and headwinds, while three are optimistic on deliveries and near-term rally potential. The stock is down 5.9% in the past month and 13.3% over six months despite the 18.4% twelve-month gain, indicating sentiment has deteriorated in recent months.
Caution: Earnings on Jul 22 are imminent and represent a significant event risk. Current technicals are weak (price below all three major SMAs, death cross in place, descending channel confirmed), and this technical backdrop could amplify downside if the earnings miss expectations, despite analyst consensus being bullish.
Sentiment from 4 headlines, 8 headlines, Jul 19 – Jul 19
Immediate support at USD 367.88 (3-touch major level) and USD 357.19 (secondary major) are critical; a break below 357.19 targets 325.76. Resistance is clustered at USD 418.54 (4-touch major), USD 434.60 (recent 2026-07-01 high), and USD 411.54 (3-touch). Reclaiming the SMA50 at 409.80 and SMA200 at 417.05 would signal a potential channel reversal.
TSLA is trapped in a confirmed descending channel with lower highs and lower lows over both 3 and 24-month timeframes, supported by a death cross in April and current positioning below all three major moving averages. Analyst consensus remains bullish with a USD 425.22 mean target, and a record Q2 delivery beat was reported; however, upcoming earnings on Jul 22 and identified headwinds create event risk that could test support near USD 367.88 or even USD 325.76 if the report disappoints. Short interest is moderate, so no immediate squeeze relief is likely. A 6–12-month base case suggests sideways oscillation within the descending channel until technicals reset; sustained recovery above USD 418.54 and the SMA200 would be required to invalidate the downtrend and target the analyst consensus level and beyond.
Prices & news from Yahoo · analysis by claude-haiku-4-5 · cached up to 24h
Earnings quality appears reasonable, with strong operating cash flow relative to net income, though regulatory credit sales represent a non-operational revenue stream.
Tesla possesses a moderate moat anchored on brand, vertical integration in batteries, and manufacturing scale, though competitive advantages are eroding as rivals industrialize EV production.
The leadership team is anchored by founder and CEO Elon Musk, supported by finance, manufacturing, engineering, and design executives. The team includes long-tenured operational leaders and subject-matter experts in vehicle engineering and design, reflecting a mix of technical depth and functional specialization.
Co-Founder, Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Chief Financial Officer
Senior Vice President of APAC & Global Vehicle Manufacturing
Vice President of Sales - North America