Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla…
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2Q26 | $0.54 | $0.33 | -39.2% |
| 1Q26 | $0.35 | $0.41 | +17.2% |
| 4Q25 | $0.45 | $0.50 | +11.0% |
| 3Q25 | $0.56 | $0.50 | -10.5% |
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Tesla posted net income of $3.79 billion on revenue of $97.88 billion over the trailing twelve months, yielding a 3.9% net profit margin and 4.2% operating margin.
Revenue declined 2.9% year-over-year on a trailing twelve-month basis, reflecting softer demand and pricing headwinds in key markets. Gross margin stands at 19.1%, compressed from prior periods as price reductions have outpaced cost reductions. Operating margin of 4.2% reflects operating leverage constraints amid revenue contraction. The company reported earnings per share of $1.11 on a trailing basis, with the most recent reported quarter (1Q26) delivering $0.41 EPS, beating consensus by 17.2%. EBITDA dynamics are obscured by the elevated multiples, suggesting profitability is pressured relative to historical levels.
Valuation multiples reflect speculative growth expectations despite recent margin compression, slowing revenue, and elevated execution risk.
Operating cash flow reached $16.53 billion trailing twelve months, but free cash flow of $5.25 billion reflects elevated capital expenditure required to support manufacturing expansion.
Operating cash flow of $16.53 billion demonstrates the company's ability to convert earnings into cash despite profitability pressures. Free cash flow of $5.25 billion, equivalent to a 5.4% FCF margin on TTM revenue, indicates capital intensity remains high as the company funds gigafactory buildouts and production line upgrades. The gap between operating and free cash flow suggests capex is approximately $11.3 billion annually, critical for supporting future volume growth and technology development. Cash generation provides flexibility for debt service and strategic investments, though sustainability depends on revenue stabilization and margin recovery.
Tesla maintains a strong balance sheet with $44.74 billion in total cash and $15.89 billion in total debt, yielding net cash of approximately $28.85 billion.
The net cash position of roughly $28.85 billion provides substantial financial flexibility and eliminates near-term solvency risk. Total debt of $15.89 billion against total cash of $44.74 billion yields a net cash-to-market-cap ratio of approximately 1.9%, indicating minimal leverage risk. Return on equity of 4.9% and return on assets of 2.2% reflect underutilized capital in relation to the expanded asset base, suggesting equity capital is earning below cost of capital. Debt-to-equity metrics are conservative, and the company faces no imminent refinancing pressure. The balance sheet strength offsets profitability and operational efficiency concerns in the near term.
Analyst consensus remains constructively biased, but recent earnings miss and guidance uncertainty suggest revisions may be forthcoming.
Consensus rating is buy from 47 analysts with mean price target of USD 425.09 (implying upside from current levels), though the wide spread (low USD 125.00 to high USD 600.00) reflects divergent views on autonomous timing and margin recovery. Next earnings release is scheduled for October 21, 2026. The prior 2Q26 earnings surprise of -38.3% (actual EPS 0.33 vs. estimate 0.535) suggests analyst models embedded overly optimistic margin assumptions; forward guidance visibility appears limited as management navigates demand uncertainty and pricing pressures. Insider ownership of 17.8% indicates aligned incentives, and institutional ownership of 43.6% reflects broad acceptance, but recent stock decline of 14.52% intra-day signals volatility and potential repositioning.
Based on $309.22 · Jul 27, 2026 · Daily chart · News: 8 headlines, Jul 28 – Jul 28
TSLA shows lower highs and lower lows over the 3-month window (structure label: lower_highs_lower_lows). Price is 19.7% below SMA20 (falling), 22.7% below SMA50 (flat), and has lost 17.8% in three months; the death cross on 2026-04-09 marked the onset of this decline.
The 2-year structure confirms lower_highs_lower_lows. Price is 25.3% below SMA200 (flat), and the 12-month return is +1.3% but masks a severe 6-month decline of -31.1%; the downtrend has dominated since April 2026.
Short-term downtrend is an acceleration of the long-term downtrend; no recovery within the larger downward structure is evident.
| MA | Value | Price | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | $385.20 | below | -19.7% |
| SMA 50 | $399.84 | below | -22.7% |
| SMA 200 | $414.09 | below | -25.3% |
Death cross on 2026-04-09 confirmed the shift from an uptrend to a downtrend; no subsequent golden cross has occurred.
52-week low, just 3.8% below current price; represents the lower boundary of the recent 12-month trading range.
Three touches on record, last on 2025-06-05; established support level tested multiple times in the downtrend.
Four touches on record, last on 2025-04-07; the lowest verified support level in the 252-day window.
Four touches, last on 2026-03-11; a key resistance cluster near the 52-week high zone.
Three touches, last on 2026-04-17; represents the recent peak before the steep decline.
Three touches, last on 2026-06-10; intermediate resistance in the current pullback zone.
A confirmed descending channel is visible from early June (445 highs) to late July (309 close). Parallel downward-sloping lines contain lower highs and lower lows, with the most recent close near the lower channel boundary, indicating sustained downward momentum.
A possible bear flag is visible in late June–early July: a brief rally from late June (~375 to ~425, early July) followed by a downside channel into late July (425 to 309). The pattern suggests a test of lower support, though the flag channel is still developing.
A possible bearish pennant is forming after the sharp selloff on 2026-07-23 (~319 low). The consolidation from 2026-07-24 to 2026-07-27 (313 to 309) shows tightening volatility, consistent with a pennant setup prior to further downside.
A possible descending triangle is forming: a flat support zone around 297–309 (the 52-week low and recent close) with falling highs from 425 (early July) to 309 (late July). If price breaks below 297, the pattern confirms a downside target.
Bull case assumes a recovery to the February–March 2026 resistance cluster (381.44, 411.54, 418.54) followed by a rally to the 434.60 level (2 touches in May–July). This range reflects analyst mean target of 401.07 and the upper portion of consensus expectations. Technicals would require a breakout above the descending channel and a reversal of the death cross, supported by volume and positive earnings surprises.
Base case assumes consolidation in a 309–381 range, with support at the 52-week low (297.82) and intermediate resistance at 381.44 (3 touches in June). This reflects a stabilization of the current downtrend without a full reversal; price oscillates within the lower portion of the descending channel before any sustained recovery attempt.
Bear case assumes a breakdown of the 297.82 support (52-week low) and a test of the 272.58 (3 touches in June 2025) and ultimate 213.70 levels (4 touches in April 2025). This would require the descending channel to remain intact, falling wedge to resolve downward, and analyst targets to be revised materially lower in response to operational headwinds.
Method: Targets are derived from the confirmed descending channel (June–July 2026), the verified support and resistance levels from the 252-day window, and the analyst consensus mean target (401.07) as a soft cap on the bull case. The bear case extends to prior multi-touch support levels. The wide analyst target range (125–600) and the recent downward revision by Deutsche Bank introduce uncertainty; confidence is medium rather than high due to the absence of a confirmed bullish reversal pattern (no inverse H&S, no double bottom) and the ongoing structure of lower highs and lower lows.
Base midpoint implies -5.7% from the current live price.
Latest volume (43.68M) is 0.99× the 20-day average (44.02M), slightly below average but not diverging sharply; no major volume spike confirms the recent selloff, suggesting some capitulation but not panic liquidation.
Analyst consensus remains 'buy' (6 strong-buy, 17 buy, 17 hold), but the mean price target (401.07) is 22.9% above the current price of 309.22, indicating a significant gap between consensus expectations and recent price action. Deutsche Bank cut its target from 465 to 420 on July 28, signaling revisions downward. Short interest is low at 2.0% of float, offering little capitulation signal. Headline sentiment is mixed: some positive catalysts (UK patent win) and analyst conviction on a potential 85% recovery contrast with the headline 'Tesla Continues Its 2026 Crash' and the sharp $1.2T wealth destruction narrative.
Caution: Analyst consensus remains constructive, but price action and recent target cuts suggest a divergence between Wall Street convictions and market reality. Headline framing emphasizes the crash and wealth loss rather than operational improvements, which may be overstating the bearish case; conversely, the 22.9% gap between mean target and current price suggests significant downside risk if analyst targets themselves are revised lower.
Sentiment from 4 headlines, 8 headlines, Jul 28 – Jul 28
The 52-week low at 297.82 is the most critical near-term support; a breakdown below it would target 272.58 and ultimately 213.70. On the upside, the descending-channel resistance around 381.44–418.54 defines the ceiling for any recovery attempt; a break above 418.54 would signal potential channel reversal.
TSLA is in a confirmed downtrend with lower highs and lower lows across both the 3-month and 2-year structures. RSI is oversold at 27.3, price is 19–25% below all major moving averages, and a death cross on April 9 marked the start of the decline. A descending channel and possible bear flag and bearish pennant are forming, suggesting further downside risk into the 272–297 support zone. Analyst consensus remains 'buy' with a mean target of 401.07, but Deutsche Bank's recent target cut signals downward revision pressure, and the wide divergence between consensus expectations and current price reflects market skepticism. No confirmed bullish reversal pattern is evident; recovery would require a break above 418.54 resistance and a close above the descending channel, neither of which is assured. Oversold RSI and analyst target support could attract short-term buyers, but technical structure remains unfavorable for a sustained rally in the near term.
Prices & news from Yahoo · analysis by claude-haiku-4-5 · cached up to 24h · live drift +18.4%
Earnings quality appears reasonable, with strong operating cash flow relative to net income, though regulatory credit sales represent a non-operational revenue stream.
Tesla possesses a moderate moat anchored on brand, vertical integration in batteries, and manufacturing scale, though competitive advantages are eroding as rivals industrialize EV production.
The leadership team is anchored by founder and CEO Elon Musk, supported by finance, manufacturing, engineering, and design executives. The team includes long-tenured operational leaders and subject-matter experts in vehicle engineering and design, reflecting a mix of technical depth and functional specialization.
Co-Founder, Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Chief Financial Officer
Senior Vice President of APAC & Global Vehicle Manufacturing
Vice President of Sales - North America
Tesla designs, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles, and provides energy generation and storage systems globally. Today's session appears to be driven by a research firm lowering its price target while maintaining a positive stance, combined with reported challenges surrounding the Cybertruck's market reception and recent developments in the CEO's personal financial situation.
Not financial advice. StockIt is for informational and educational use only — not financial advice. Numbers can be delayed, incomplete, or wrong. AI-written interpretation can be biased or mistaken. Always verify against primary sources (filings, the company's investor-relations site) and consider your own situation carefully before making any investment decision.