Not financial advice. StockIt is for informational and educational use only — not financial advice. Numbers can be delayed, incomplete, or wrong. AI-written interpretation can be biased or mistaken. Always verify against primary sources (filings, the company's investor-relations site) and consider your own situation carefully before making any investment decision.
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company. The company operates through two segments, Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional…
claude-haiku-4-5 · Generated 16h ago · based on $205.19
Live$205.19▲+0.32(+0.16%)
NVIDIA develops data center AI infrastructure, networking platforms, GPUs for gaming and enterprise, and autonomous vehicle solutions. The move appears to be driven by renewed attention to NVIDIA's CPU expansion efforts, including its Vera CPU launch for China, which may signal progress in challenging established x86 competitors and broadening its addressable market beyond traditional GPU accelerators.
⚠Not financial advice. StockIt is for informational and educational use only — not financial advice. Numbers can be delayed, incomplete, or wrong. AI-written interpretation can be biased or mistaken. Always verify against primary sources (filings, the company's investor-relations site) and consider your own situation carefully before making any investment decision.
Deep Dive
⚠Informational only
Financials from Yahoo · analysis by claude-haiku-4-5
NVIDIA is a data center scale AI infrastructure company providing accelerated computing platforms, GPUs, and software for artificial intelligence, data centers, gaming, and autonomous vehicles. Revenue of approximately $253.5 billion (TTM) reflects dominant market share in AI chip design and deployment.
Revenue mix
The Compute & Networking segment, which includes data center accelerators, AI software, and automotive platforms, is the primary growth driver. The Graphics segment serves gaming (GeForce), professional workstations (RTX/Quadro), and related software. Geographic diversification spans North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, with significant exposure to China and the broader Asia region despite recent regulatory headwinds.
Competitive position
NVIDIA holds the leading position in discrete GPU design for both data center AI and gaming workloads, with substantial architectural and software advantages. Competitors include AMD (CPUs and GPUs), Intel (CPUs and discrete GPUs), and increasingly hyperscalers developing in-house silicon, but NVIDIA's ecosystem depth, driver maturity, and CUDA software moat remain materially differentiated.
Industry trends
The semiconductor industry is experiencing sustained demand for AI compute infrastructure, driven by large language model training, inference scaling, and enterprise adoption of generative AI applications. Capital intensity for fabs and design is rising, favoring fabless players like NVIDIA; however, custom silicon development by major cloud providers represents a structural headwind to future GPU TAM.
↗Sustained AI/ML training and inference deployment across cloud providers and enterprises
↗Expansion of Hopper and upcoming Blackwell architecture adoption and pricing power
↗Automotive and autonomous vehicle software and platform revenue scaling
↗International geographic expansion and data center proliferation outside North America
↗Higher-margin software and services bundled with hardware
Risks
⚠Regulatory restrictions on AI chip exports to China and emerging sanctions regimes
⚠Hyperscaler custom silicon competition eroding GPU TAM and pricing power
⚠Concentration in top-3 customer base creating revenue volatility
⚠Supply chain constraints and geopolitical tensions affecting wafer allocation and logistics
⚠Valuation compression if AI capex growth decelerates or demand normalizes
2 / 11
Profitability
NVIDIA reports exceptional profitability with gross margin of 74.1%, operating margin of 65.6%, and net profit margin of 63.0%, reflecting pricing power and operating leverage in a capacity-constrained AI chip market.
Revenue grew 65.5% year-over-year to $253.49 billion (TTM), demonstrating explosive scaling of AI infrastructure demand. Net income reached $120.07 billion (TTM), translating to trailing EPS of $6.52 and a net profit margin of 63.0%—historically high for a semiconductor company. Operating margin expanded to 65.6%, indicating that gross profit expansion is translating directly to operating profit as R&D and SG&A scale more slowly than revenue. The company's ability to maintain such high margins in a commodity-adjacent industry underscores architectural differentiation, design leadership, and software ecosystem stickiness. EBITDA conversion is implicit in the 65.6% operating margin.
Versus peers
NVIDIA's gross and operating margins substantially exceed peer averages for AMD, Intel, and foundries like TSMC, reflecting the fabless model, design concentration, and software-driven competitive moat. The 63% net margin is exceptional for the semiconductor sector and reflects both operating leverage and a favorable AI demand environment.
3 / 11
Valuation
Fairly valued
NVIDIA trades at a meaningful premium to historical norms, justified by dominant market position but vulnerable to sentiment shifts.
Multiples
NVIDIA's trailing P/E of 30.65x reflects the gap between current earnings power and forward expectations; forward P/E of 15.75x suggests market confidence in substantial earnings growth ahead. P/S of 19.15x and EV/Revenue of 19.72x are elevated relative to the semiconductor peer median, though consistent with NVIDIA's 74.1% gross margin and 63.0% net profit margin — both well above industry averages. EV/EBITDA of 30.20x and P/B of 24.84x signal the market is pricing in sustained competitive moat and capital-efficient growth. These multiples rest above historical averages for the company and above most peers, reflecting the market's assessment of NVIDIA's architectural leadership and CUDA ecosystem lock-in, but offer limited margin of safety if AI capex cycles decelerate or competitive threats materialize.
Versus peers
NVIDIA commands a valuation premium versus traditional semiconductor peers on account of superior margins, AI market dominance, and switching-cost economics embedded in the CUDA ecosystem. The premium is rational given moat strength, though it leaves limited room for execution stumbles or exogenous demand shocks.
Bull case
+25% to +35% upside if AI capex acceleration sustains, gross margins expand further, and competitive threats remain contained by CUDA and design superiority.
Base case
+8% to +15% upside reflecting steady AI adoption, stable margin structure, and forward earnings growth offsetting current valuation; assumes no major competitive disruption or capex contraction.
Bear case
-20% to -30% downside if AI investment cycles slow faster than expected, gross margins compress due to pricing pressure or competition, or enterprise deployments face saturation.
4 / 11
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow of $125.65 billion (TTM) converts to free cash flow of $46.34 billion after capex, supporting sustained capital returns and balance-sheet strength.
Operating cash flow of $125.65 billion represents 49.6% of revenue (TTM), indicating strong earnings quality and working capital management despite rapid scaling. Free cash flow of $46.34 billion (approximately 18.3% of revenue) reflects capex discipline; the company invests in design, software infrastructure, and facilities but avoids the capital-intensive fab model. Working capital has been a tailwind, though it is moderating as growth normalizes. The cash conversion ratio and FCF margin are robust by historical standards and support the company's $10+ billion annual capital return programs and strategic investments without debt issuance.
5 / 11
Financial Health
NVIDIA maintains a fortress balance sheet with net cash of approximately $40.4 billion, low leverage, and exceptional returns on equity (114.3%) and assets (52.7%).
Total cash stands at $53.17 billion against total debt of $12.81 billion, yielding net cash of approximately $40.4 billion and a debt-to-equity ratio well below 0.2x. The current ratio (not disclosed but implied by the balance sheet composition) is strong. Return on equity of 114.3% and return on assets of 52.7% are extraordinarily high, reflecting the capital-light fabless model, high margins, and efficient scaling. No near-term refinancing risk; debt is senior unsecured and manageable relative to operating cash generation. Interest coverage is extremely robust given the $125.65 billion operating cash flow against minimal debt service.
6 / 11
Forward Signals
Analyst consensus remains constructive, but expectations are now heavily baked into forward multiples, leaving little room for guidance misses.
The consensus strong_buy rating from 62 analysts and mean price target of 298.42 dollars (vs. current 200.42 dollars) implies broad confidence in earnings expansion, yet forward P/E of 15.75x already reflects material growth assumptions. Most recently, NVIDIA beat EPS estimates by 5.5 percent (actual 1.87 versus estimate 1.772 in 2Q26), maintaining a track record of execution. Insider ownership at 4.0 percent and institutional holdings at 70.9 percent indicate alignment and strong demand, though the wide analyst target range (180.00 to 500.00 dollars) signals genuine debate about terminal growth rates and capex sustainability. The next earnings date is 2026-08-26, an opportunity to validate or challenge consensus assumptions on data center bookings and margin trajectory.
Catalysts
◆2Q26 earnings results (2026-08-26) and management commentary on AI capex visibility, customer inventory, and geographic demand.
◆Competitive product announcements from AMD or custom ASIC deployments affecting NVIDIA's market share or pricing power.
◆New product launches (Blackwell, Rubin-generation chips) and adoption rates in inference and edge deployment.
◆Data on gross margin trends and any pricing pressure from consolidation or hyperscaler custom silicon efforts.
◆Regulatory or trade actions affecting export to China or other key markets.
7 / 11
Technical Analysis
Based on $205.19 (at close) · Jun 12, 2026 · Daily chart · News: 8 headlines, Jun 13 – Jun 13
Short-term · ~1–3 months
sidewaysweak
3-month structure is mixed with price down 9.1% in the last month despite a 13.8% 3-month gain. SMA20 is falling at 214.62 while SMA50 is rising at 206.91, and price trades below both, indicating near-term consolidation after the May rally peak of 235.74.
Long-term · ~6–24 months
uptrendstrong
2-year structure is mixed but SMA200 at 189.26 is rising and price sits 8.4% above it; the 12-month return of +43.7% and recovery from the 52-week low of 140.85 (+45.7%) establish a dominant uptrend over the medium to long term.
Short-term pullback and consolidation within an intact longer-term uptrend; weakness in May-June appears to be a within-trend correction rather than a structural reversal.
Moving averages
MA
Value
Price
Distance
SMA 20
$214.62
below
-4.4%
SMA 50
$206.91
below
-0.8%
SMA 200
$189.26
above
+8.4%
Support levels
$194.69major
6 touches, most recent 2026-05-04; strong horizontal support in the near-term recovery zone
$184.50minor
3 touches, last 2025-09-22; intermediate support level showing historical price consolidation
$178.11minor
4 touches, last 2026-02-17; secondary support in the lower consolidation band
Resistance levels
$236.54major
1 touch, last 2026-05-14, coincides with 52-week high; strong resistance defining the upper edge of recent range
$232.28minor
1 touch, last 2026-06-02; recent resistance just below the 52-week high
$216.83minor
1 touch, last 2026-04-27; intermediate resistance near the SMA20 zone
Patterns
2 of 22 active
↗Bull flag
formingmedium confidence
After the sharp run-up from 196.50 (2026-05-05) to 235.74 (2026-05-14), price has retreated into a downward-sloping channel bounded roughly by 235.74 and 205.10 (2026-06-05), consistent with a pullback consolidation. A break above 216.83 or 232.28 would signal flag completion and bullish continuation.
→Horizontal channel (rectangle)
formingmedium confidence
Price oscillates within a rough 200–225 band from late May into June, with support near 194.69 and resistance near 232.28–236.54. This box-like range is consistent with a neutral rectangle consolidation awaiting a directional breakout.
Technical price target
Horizon: next 6-12 months · medium confidence
Bull case
$236.54 – $280.00
Drivers
Bull case rests on recapture of the May 2026 peak at 236.54 (52-week high) with continuation driven by successful Vera CPU market entry in China and faster-than-expected data-center AI growth. Analyst consensus mean target of 298.93 provides a soft upper cap; measured moves from the April low of 165.17 to the May high of 235.74 (a 70-point span) project an additional 70 points above 236.54 to ~306, but conservatively capped at 280 given mixed 3M structure and near-term consolidation.
Base case
$194.69 – $236.54
Drivers
Base case assumes price consolidates within the 194.69 major support (6 touches) and 236.54 resistance (52-week high) over the next 6–12 months, consistent with the mixed 2Y structure and the horizontal-channel rectangle pattern forming in early June. Breakout direction remains uncertain; SMA200 support at 189.26 provides a floor above the 52-week low of 140.85.
Bear case
$169.83 – $205.19
Drivers
Bear case triggers if growth fears, execution missteps on Vera or CPU roadmaps, or macro headwinds cause a break below 194.69 support. Secondary support lies at 184.50 and 178.11; 169.83 (6 touches, last Feb 5) represents a meaningful retest of the February–April consolidation zone. Limited short interest (1.22%) reduces downside momentum, but price at 205.19 leaves room to fall 17.4% to the 169.83 level—a realistic bear target if the long-term uptrend breaks.
Method: Targets derived from measured moves (May rally span of 70 points), support/resistance clusters from verified_levels (236.54 peak, 194.69 major support, 169.83 secondary support), and the analyst consensus mean of 298.93 as a soft cap on bull upside. Channel projection from the 252-day uptrend (140.85 to 236.54 = 95.7-point rally) supports a base-case range of 194–236. Soft caps applied: bull.high capped below 52-week high × 1.5 (354.81) to reflect mixed 3M structure; bear.low set above 52-week low × 0.5 (70.43) given long-term uptrend integrity.
Base midpoint implies +5.1% from the current live price.
RSI(14)
45.2neutral
Volume
Latest volume of 112.0M is 64% of the 20-day average of 176.0M, indicating below-average participation in today's close and suggesting limited conviction in the current price level.
Market sentiment
bullish
Analyst consensus remains very strong at 62 analysts rating NVDA a strong buy with a mean price target of 298.93 (31.4% above current price), providing a significant bullish anchor. Recent headlines emphasize growth drivers—China Vera CPU launch, CPU expansion strategy, and Harvard AI holdings—offsetting the near-term price weakness. Short interest of 1.22% is minimal, reducing downside squeeze potential.
News
All 8 headlines from Jun 13 frame NVDA in an optimistic light, focusing on strategic product launches (Vera CPU for China), broadened CPU ambitions, and institutional adoption. One note (Stocktwits headline) flags that NVDA stock has been in red for the fourth week, suggesting market acknowledgment of near-term pressure despite positive longer-term narratives.
Analyst signal
Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish: 49 buy, 10 strong-buy, 2 hold, 1 sell among 62 analysts. Mean target of 298.93 implies 45.7% upside from current price; the wide range (low 180.00, high 500.00) reflects confidence in upside while acknowledging some disagree. The current 31.4% gap between price and consensus target suggests the market is pricing in near-term caution despite strong analyst conviction.
Positioning
Short interest stands at 1.22% of float (284.7M shares), with a 1.71 days-to-cover ratio. The very low short exposure and minimal month-over-month change indicate no major short squeeze catalyst or pressure from crowded bearish positioning.
Drivers
◆China Vera CPU launch narrative—expanding AI chip addressable market beyond GPUs
◆Broadened CPU strategy challenging x86 competitors, signaling confidence in competitive moat
◆Institutional demand (Harvard, large institutional portfolios) reinforcing long-term demand thesis
◆Analyst consensus upgrade or reiteration of strong-buy with $298.93 mean target
Caution: Despite bullish sentiment and analyst targets, price has fallen 9.1% in the last month and trades below both SMA20 and SMA50, suggesting near-term momentum has stalled. The 31.4% gap between current price and mean analyst target is large; if growth slows or execution stumbles on Vera or CPU roadmaps, downside could be swift. Volume is below average, raising questions about the durability of any rebound.
Sentiment from 4 headlines, 8 headlines, Jun 13 – Jun 13
Key levels to watch
Immediate resistance at 216.83 and 232.28 will determine if price can recapture the May peak of 236.54 and sustain a bullish breakout; failure to hold above 216.83 increases the risk of a test of 194.69 major support. If 194.69 breaks, the next critical support is 184.50, with a deeper pullback risking 178.11 and ultimately 169.83.
Bottom line
NVDA is in a near-term consolidation phase after a strong but ultimately exhausted May rally, with price sandwiched below both SMA20 and SMA50 while remaining above SMA200. Analyst consensus remains robustly bullish (mean target 298.93, 45.7% upside), and recent headlines emphasize strategic growth drivers in China and CPUs, but the 31.4% gap between current price and consensus, combined with below-average volume and mixed short-term structure, suggests the market is discounting near-term execution risk. The horizontal-channel rectangle pattern and weak RSI at 45.2 indicate a decision point: a break above 236.54 would confirm continuation toward analyst targets, while a drop below 194.69 would signal a deeper correction within the longer-term uptrend.
Prices & news from Yahoo · analysis by claude-haiku-4-5 · cached up to 24h
8 / 11
Earnings Quality
Earnings quality appears high, supported by strong operating cash flow conversion and recent earnings beats, though forward revisions and operating leverage warrant ongoing monitoring.
Red flags
⚠Revenue concentration among hyperscalers (top customers represent material portion of revenue) creates near-term visibility risk if any major customer cuts capex
⚠High operating leverage implies profitability is sensitive to revenue beats and misses; any demand slowdown could compress margins rapidly
⚠Rapid year-over-year growth (65.5%) and high valuations create pressure for continued acceleration; normalization or deceleration could trigger multiple compression
9 / 11
Competitive Moat
Strong
NVIDIA's moat stems from architectural leadership, the CUDA software ecosystem, design talent concentration, and switching costs embedded in enterprise AI deployments.
Moat sources
The CUDA platform has created a developer ecosystem and switching-cost advantage that is difficult for competitors to replicate; years of accumulated libraries, optimization, and training lock in customers. Architectural innovation—evidenced by Hopper, Blackwell, and roadmapped designs—maintains performance-per-watt and performance-per-dollar leadership, justifying premium pricing and preference among hyperscalers. The company's brand, design team, and RTL/verification expertise are concentrated, creating talent barriers for rivals. However, the moat is not invulnerable: hyperscaler custom silicon (Google TPU, AWS Trainium, Amazon Neuron) is eroding GPU TAM; regulatory export restrictions reduce addressable markets; and competition from AMD, Intel, and fabless startups is intensifying. The software moat is the most durable component, but hardware commoditization pressures are increasing over the 3-5 year horizon.
10 / 11
Investment Thesis
Neutral
Bull case
NVIDIA's architectural moat, CUDA ecosystem, and 63.0 percent net margin position it to sustain 30-40 percent annual earnings growth for several years as AI permeates cloud infrastructure, enterprise deployments, and autonomous vehicles. Forward P/E of 15.75x is reasonable for a 30+ percent grower with fortress margins, and the consensus strong_buy with 298.42 dollar mean target suggests asymmetric upside if AI capex surprises to the high side or gross margins expand further.
Base case
NVIDIA grows data center revenue in the low-40s to mid-50s percent annually over the next 2-3 years, with gross margin stabilizing near 70-72 percent as mix matures and competition increases. Forward P/E of 15.75x and trailing P/E of 30.65x are appropriate for a mid-30s percent earnings compounder, offering low-to-mid single-digit annual returns absent margin upside or multiple re-rating; the current valuation embeds most good news.
Bear case
If AI capex growth decelerates to 15-20 percent due to utilization saturation or custom ASIC adoption, or if gross margin contracts to 65-68 percent from competitive pricing, NVIDIA's earnings growth slows sharply. Trailing earnings multiple would compress from 30.65x toward 20-22x, triggering a significant re-valuation downward, especially if the consensus earnings estimates prove optimistic.
Reasons to own
✓Dominant, defensible market position with 74.1% gross margin and high switching costs via CUDA ecosystem.
✓Capital-efficient growth: 114.3% ROE and 46.34 billion dollar free cash flow generation fund shareholder returns and R&D.
✓AI secular trend remains in early innings; data center infrastructure spending likely to remain elevated for years.
✓Analyst consensus strong_buy and mean 298.42 dollar target signal institutional conviction in the earnings trajectory.
✓Recent 5.5% EPS beat (2Q26) and 125.65 billion dollar operating cash flow demonstrate consistent execution.
Biggest risks
⚠Valuation already embeds high earnings growth; any miss on data center demand or margin compression triggers sharp re-rating downward.
⚠AI capex cycle deceleration as hyperscalers shift to inference, serving, and cost optimization, reducing accelerator demand.
⚠Gross margin erosion from 74.1% if AMD, Intel, or custom ASIC solutions gain adoption or hyperscalers develop in-house chips.
⚠Geopolitical and trade restrictions affecting China exposure, a meaningful portion of data center bookings.
●Quarterly data center revenue growth and gross margin; any deceleration below 30% YoY or margin compression below 70% signals cycle risk.
●Management guidance on forward AI capex visibility and customer order patterns; any sign of inventory buildup or demand softness.
●CUDA ecosystem traction in new workloads (inference, edge) and competitive win/loss data; evidence of ASIC or open-source adoption.
●Free cash flow sustainability and capital allocation; whether 46.34 billion dollar FCF run-rate holds as growth moderates.
Bottom line
11 / 11
Leadership
NVIDIA's executive team is led by co-founder Jensen Huang, who has stewarded the company through multiple technology cycles and maintains significant ownership. The leadership group includes experienced operators from semiconductor, enterprise software, and automotive backgrounds, though the organization is heavily dependent on Huang's vision and market presence.
Jensen Huang
Chief Executive Officer, President, and Co-Founder
Colette Kress
Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President
Ajay Puri
Executive Vice President, Worldwide Field Operations
